The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%, and its rate hikes have helped drive down inflation over the past 18 months. Now that the 2% goal is in sight, the Fed has dialed back its increases and even paused rate hikes at its last meeting in September, holding them at the 5.25% to 5.5% range. However, will this slightly hotter CPI report cause the Fed to continue its rate hikes?
Some insights may be gleaned from various speeches made by Fed officials this week. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested that the increase in Treasury yields could have the effect of cooling inflation without the need for more rate hikes.
“Looking ahead, I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said Monday at a National Association for Business Economics meeting.
Lorie Logan, the head of the Dallas Fed, said something similar on Monday at that same meeting, although she used more direct terms.
文法分析
1. The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%
這個句子的基本結構是：
The Fed’s + target + for inflation + is + 2%
- The Fed’s：聯準會的
- target：目標
- for inflation：針對通膨的
- is 2%：是 2%
target for + 名詞 可以表示「針對某個項目的目標」。
例如：
- The target for inflation is 2%.
通膨目標是 2%。 - The target for revenue growth is 10%.
營收成長目標是 10%。
2. its rate hikes have helped drive down inflation
這裡使用現在完成式：
have helped + 原形動詞
have helped drive down inflation 表示「已經幫助降低通膨」。
help + 原形動詞 和 help + to + 原形動詞 都可以使用，因此也可以說：
have helped to drive down inflation
drive down 中的 drive 不是「開車」，而是「推動、促使」。因此：
- drive down inflation：降低通膨
- drive down prices：壓低價格
- drive down costs：降低成本
- drive down demand：降低需求
3. over the past 18 months
over + 一段時間 可以表示「在過去某段期間」。
over the past 18 months：在過去 18 個月裡。
這種表達方式經常與現在完成式一起使用：
Inflation has fallen over the past 18 months.
意思是：「過去 18 個月以來，通膨一直下降。」
4. Now that the 2% goal is in sight
Now that + 子句 是非常實用的句型，可以表示「既然……」或「現在……已經……」。
Now that the 2% goal is in sight 可以理解為「現在 2% 的目標已經在望」。
in sight 在這裡不是單純的「在視線中」，而是表示某個目標已經接近實現。
- Victory is in sight.
勝利在望。 - An economic recovery is in sight.
經濟復甦已經在望。
5. the Fed has dialed back its increases
dial back 是財經英文中常見的片語，意思是「降低、減少、放慢」。
has dialed back its increases 可以理解為「已經放慢升幅」或「已經降低增加的幅度」。
例如：
The company dialed back its spending.
公司降低了支出。
6. and even paused rate hikes
even 表示「甚至」，用來強調後面的情況比前面的情況更進一步。
has dialed back its increases and even paused rate hikes 表示「已經放慢升息，甚至暫停升息」。
7. holding them at the 5.25% to 5.5% range
holding 是現在分詞，這裡形成分詞片語，用來補充說明前面的動作。
可以理解成：
…, and it held them at the 5.25% to 5.5% range.
原文使用 holding，讓句子更加緊湊。
8. will this slightly hotter CPI report cause the Fed to continue its rate hikes?
這裡使用非常重要的句型：
cause + 人／事物 + to + 原形動詞
cause the Fed to continue：導致聯準會繼續……
例如：
The report caused investors to sell.
這份報告導致投資人賣出。
Higher rates caused consumers to spend less.
較高的利率導致消費者減少支出。
9. Some insights may be gleaned from various speeches
這裡使用被動語態：
may be + 過去分詞
glean 是比較正式的用字，表示「從資訊中逐步獲取、蒐集」。
Some insights may be gleaned from… 可以理解為「可以從……中獲得一些見解」。
10. could have the effect of cooling inflation
這裡使用：
have the effect of + V-ing
表示「具有……的效果」。
have the effect of cooling inflation = 具有降低通膨的效果。
例如：
Higher interest rates have the effect of reducing demand.
較高的利率具有降低需求的效果。
11. without the need for more rate hikes
without the need for + 名詞 表示「不需要……」。
without the need for more rate hikes = 不需要進一步升息。
也可以改寫成：
without needing to raise rates further
但原文的 without the need for 語氣比較正式，在財經文章中很常見。
12. I will remain cognizant of…
remain + 形容詞 表示「繼續保持某種狀態」。
cognizant of 表示「意識到、注意到」，語氣比一般的 aware of 更正式。
remain cognizant of the tightening = 持續注意金融環境的緊縮。
13. as I assess the future path of policy
as + 子句 在這裡可以表示「當……時」。
as I assess the future path of policy = 當我評估未來的政策走向時。
assess 是財經新聞中非常常見的動詞，表示「評估、衡量」。
- assess the situation：評估情況
- assess the risks：評估風險
- assess the outlook：評估前景
14. although she used more direct terms
although + 子句 表示「雖然、儘管」。
although she used more direct terms = 儘管她使用了更直接的措辭。
片語整理
target for + 名詞
意思：針對……的目標
例句：The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%.
聯準會的通膨目標是 2%。
drive down + 名詞
意思：降低、壓低
例句：Higher interest rates can drive down inflation.
較高的利率可以降低通膨。
over the past + 時間
意思：在過去……期間
例句：The stock has risen sharply over the past year.
這檔股票在過去一年大幅上漲。
Now that + 子句
意思：既然……／現在……已經……
例句：Now that inflation is falling, the Fed may slow its rate hikes.
既然通膨正在下降，聯準會可能放慢升息。
be in sight
意思：在望、即將實現
例句：The company’s profitability goal is in sight.
公司的獲利目標已經在望。
dial back + 名詞
意思：降低、減少、放慢
例句：The Fed has dialed back its rate hikes.
聯準會已經放慢升息步伐。
cause + 人／事物 + to + 原形動詞
意思：導致某人／某事物做某事
例句：Higher rates caused consumers to spend less.
較高的利率導致消費者減少支出。
have the effect of + V-ing
意思：具有……的效果
例句：Higher yields could have the effect of cooling inflation.
較高的殖利率可能具有降低通膨的效果。
without the need for + 名詞
意思：不需要……
例句：Inflation could fall without the need for more rate hikes.
通膨可能在不需要進一步升息的情況下下降。
remain cognizant of
意思：持續注意、持續意識到
例句：Investors should remain cognizant of the risks.
投資人應持續注意相關風險。
assess the future path of
意思：評估……未來的走向
例句：The Fed will assess the future path of monetary policy.
聯準會將評估未來的貨幣政策走向。
use more direct terms
意思：使用更直接的措辭
例句：The CEO used more direct terms when discussing the risks.
執行長在討論風險時使用了更直接的措辭。
同義詞
| 原文 | 中文意思 | 同義詞 |
|---|---|---|
| target | 目標 | goal, objective |
| drive down | 降低、壓低 | reduce, lower, bring down |
| goal | 目標 | target, objective |
| in sight | 在望 | within reach, approaching |
| dial back | 降低、放慢 | reduce, scale back, ease |
| pause | 暫停 | halt, suspend |
| continue | 繼續 | keep, maintain, proceed with |
| insight | 見解 | understanding, perspective |
| glean | 獲取、蒐集 | obtain, gather, extract |
| cooling | 降溫 | slowing, moderating |
| cognizant | 意識到的 | aware, conscious |
| assess | 評估 | evaluate, analyze, judge |
| direct | 直接的 | straightforward, explicit |
